Judging Your Setup: Quality or Luck? (Scenario Guidance Worksheet Included)
Tune Your Mindset With Principles From Mandelbrot and Duke Using The Dead Zone (Or Yellow Box), Vector, And Standard Deviation Tool
The Problem: We Judge Outcomes, Not Decisions
Annie Duke, author of “Thinking In Bets” calls it resulting—confusing a good outcome with a good decision. In like fashion, Mandelbrot reminds us markets are wild, not mild: talking to us about “fat tails, jumps, and clustered volatility”.
It all sounds so bizarre - and that’s the point…something you must and can prepare for.
Put together: one lucky win can mask a bad process, and one disciplined loss can be a great decision.
Goal: Commit to decisions you can defend before the outcome shows up. This way, you can understand and articulate your reasoning beforehand, not try to guess it after the fact.
The Process: A Three-Proof Bet, Not a Prediction
1) Bias with Proof (not with vibes or “being green”)
Consider a strategy where you look for alignment between the vector, dead zone, and standard deviation tool for a trade (can be used for any ticker).
Fractal Vector or Candle-Based Vector (1m/3m/15m/hourly, you choose): Are we above/below? Did we reclaim/lose it on a real close? (below you see we are above on the 3m candle-based vector)
